Scotland’s Climate Change Plan is an important milestone, but delivery is the real test

Scotland’s Climate Change Plan is an important milestone, but delivery is the real test

CERG member, James Curran reflects on Scotland’s Climate Change Plan. This is an important milestone, charting Scotland’s pathway for emissions reduction to 2040, whilst remaining committed to a just transition and realising the social and economic opportunities of the transition.

CERG fed into the shaping of the plan through the plan’s Advisory Group, Parliamentary scrutiny, and a Government ‘delivery’ workshop. This latest version of the plan reflects some of our recommendations. However, writing the plan is the easy part—delivery is the real test, and the next Scottish Government has a significant ‘to-do’ list, to ensure that the plan will be delivered.

…..

The backdrop of another global fossil fuel crisis, and yet another code red climate warning from the UN, emphasises that the transition away from fossil fuel dependency and GHG emissions is ever more urgent and important for humanity.  Yet, regrettably, more countries and political parties are stepping back from their commitments.

In this context, the Scottish Government’s CCP is an important and encouraging step forward, charting Scotland’s pathway for emissions reduction to 2040, and seeking to keep Scotland on target to achieve net zero by 2045.

The narrative is strong, admirably highlighting the economic opportunities of the transition, the costs of inaction, and the importance of a just transition.

CERG are pleased to see that the final plan has adopted some of CERG’s recommendations on articulating delivery, accountability, and monitoring and evaluation, which strengthens the document. However, beyond measures such as the private jet tax and additional detail on heat networks, there is limited substantive policy change from the earlier draft, published in November.

Key concerns remain. These include a heavy reliance on unproven negative-emission technologies, a continuation of “business as usual” in rural payments beyond 2030, and delays to heat decarbonisation that could leave most households dependent on gas and oil until 2035.

Ultimately, writing the plan is the easy part—delivery is the real test.

The Cabinet Secretary acknowledged the scale of the delivery challenge, describing net zero as a “shared national endeavour.” While the final plan is now stronger on ‘delivery’, it is still unclear whether it provides enough certainty to unlock private investment or to give delivery partners clarity on roles, responsibilities and timelines. Commitments to further “delivery plans” and co-development with partners raise questions about pace and accountability—there is a risk of continued planning without real-world action.

The plan also leans heavily on existing delivery mechanisms, many of which are evidently falling short and which rely on limited public capital funding that cannot possibly achieve the scale and urgency required.

As highlighted during the NZET Committee’s scrutiny, stronger programme management will be critical.  It is well-recognised that robust programme and project management is the best way to bring focus to delivery against multi-partner challenges.  It provides, importantly, identified accountability, but also handles interdependencies, risks, critical pathways, budgets, timelines and targets, as well as wider community engagement.

The CCP is an important milestone. But significant work is now left to the next Scottish Government, including:

• Embedding a genuinely whole-government approach, beyond the current concentration of responsibility within the DG Net Zero portfolio
• Co-developing detailed and urgent implementation and investment plans with local authorities, businesses and investors through place-based approaches
• Building the delivery mechanisms needed for pace and scale – including regional coordination, skills, supply chains, financing mechanisms, and community support.

It is a tough ask and the devil will be in the delivery.  But as Greta Thunberg said “I want you to act as you would in a crisis. I want you to act as if the house is on fire, because it is.”

James Curran